EconPol Forum

EconPol Forum (formerly CESifo Forum) is a bi-monthly English-language journal to bring economic analysis on topics of worldwide interest along with policy advice to a broad range of policymakers and the public.

In September 2022 the CESifo Forum was restructured into four sections under the new EconPol brand. The first, Policy Debate of the Hour, recognizes the constantly evolving nature of policy challenges, focusing on the most pressing issues of the times. Leading researchers are invited to share their insights and policy conclusions. The Economic Policy and its Impact section assesses economic policies and develops robust evidence for their optimal design and implementation. In the Institutions Across the World section, contributors focus on the key role that institutional design plays in shaping socio-economic outcomes, often by comparing institutions across economic and political systems. Finally, Big Data-Based Economic Insights presents articles that glean economic policy advice from the exploitation of large, complex datasets.

Emergency Calls Reveal the Importance of Arrests in Reducing Repeat Domestic Violence

BIG-DATA-BASED ECONOMIC INSIGHTS

Sofia Amaral, Gordon B. Dahl, Timo Hener, Victoria Kaiser and Helmut Rainer

Domestic violence is a serious human rights violation affecting roughly one-third of women worldwide. In addition to the severe humanitarian consequences, there is also a significant economic impact not only for the individual, but also for society and the economy as a whole. This article offers evidence supporting the role of arrests in disrupting the repetitive pattern of domestic violence. They propose that an effective police response involves lowering the threshold for arrests and taking resolute measures against perpetrators.

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Russia’s “Impressionable Years” and Putin’s Inheritance

INSTITUTIONS ACROSS THE WORLD

Michael Alexeev, William Pyle and Jiaan Wang

Just over three decades ago, a new era appeared to have dawned in Europe: The Cold War had wound down, the Soviet Union’s empire had broken apart, and democratic capitalism stood poised to sweep aside ossified communist systems. This article uses geographic markers in the most recent wave of the Integrated Values Survey to show that, within Russia, the drop in a region’s electoral support for Boris Yeltsin between the presidential elections of 1991 and 1996 strongly predicts its degree of illiberalism in 2017. On balance, where faith in the politician who launched marketization and democratization declined most dramatically is where we continue to observe the greatest skepticism for his liberal project. The pattern laid down in the early 1990s persists.

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Apprenticeship Skills Pay Off on the Labor Market

ECONOMIC POLICY AND ITS IMPACT

Christina Langer, Jakob Peiffer and Simon Wiederhold

Workers’ skills are essential to their success on the labor market. However, the empirical evidence on the economic impact of higher skills is still limited due to how skills are measured. In this article, the authors develop novel measures of workers’ skills that are comprehensive, highly detailed, and directly relevant to the labor market. To this end, they leverage the characteristics of the German apprenticeship system, which offers three main advantages for measuring skills and analyzing their labor market potential.

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Thirty Years of the European Single Market ‒ Achievements and Future Challenges

Stefano Micossi, Giuseppe Bertola, Marek Dabrowski, Mehtap Akgüç and Philippe Pochet, Lucia Quaglia and Amy Verdun, Iulia Siedschlag, Andreas Baur and Lisandra Flach

The 30th anniversary of the European Single Market provides an opportunity to celebrate its successes and review what is yet to be achieved. In the future, the European Single Market will play a decisive role in setting a framework of reliable social standards and common goals. It will ensure Europe’s resilience by helping companies adapt their supply chains to future risks and find new business opportunities. The concrete measures of social policy will be left to the member states.

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It’s in the Data – Improved Market Power Mitigation in Electricity Markets

BIG-DATA-BASED ECONOMIC INSIGHTS

Jacqueline Adelowo, Moritz Bohland

In electricity markets, market power is typically measured by the difference between observed offers and underlying marginal (variable) cost of power production. Therefore, marginal cost estimates should be as accurate as possible to ensure unbiased measurement of market power and welfare-improving mitigation thereof. However, cost components and power plant characteristics are private information and firms have an incentive to overstate costs. Instead, system operators thus proxy marginal cost of power plants from past offers of the respective plant, which leaves room for strategic manipulation by firms. This article tests the accuracy of this best-practice benchmark approach against multiple suggested alternative methods. The results of our empirical analysis reveal a low estimation accuracy of the currently applied benchmark approach. All suggested alternative approaches deliver more precise estimates.

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