Press releases

Extensive expansion of the EU single market for services can permanently increase gross value added in Europe by 2.3 percent or 353 billion euros. “Trump’s election as US President demands answers from Europe. A deepening of the single market, especially in relation to services, could increase the EU’s economic weight and make the EU more attractive for US companies,” says Lisandra Flach, Director of the ifo Center for International Economics.  

Defense spending of more than the NATO target of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) would be necessary for Europe to be able to defend itself without the protective umbrella of the US. This is the conclusion of an analysis by the ifo Institute. “European countries would have to significantly increase their efforts because budgets have been too low for years to build up an adequate defense capability,” says ifo researcher Florian Dorn.

44 percent of manufacturing companies in Germany expect a negative impact on their business if Donald Trump is elected US President instead of Kamala Harris, as shown by an ifo Institute survey of 2,000 German manufacturing companies from September 2024. For around 51 percent, it makes no difference whether Trump or Harris wins the election. Only 5 percent expect positive effects from a Trump election.

If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, German exports to the United States could fall by 14.9 percent. German car exports to the United States would be particularly hard hit, down 32 percent, as would pharmaceutical exports, down 35 percent. German exports to China could decline by almost 9.6 percent overall. This has been shown by simulations by the ifo Institute and EconPol Europe in the event that Trump implements his election campaign promises to introduce new tariffs.

EU funding policy for poorer regions lacks clearly defined objectives and uniform standards for evaluating the programs. That is because the evaluations are commissioned by national or regional administrative authorities that have an interest in proving the success of their programs. This reduces the credibility of the success monitoring.