Past events

When the current US administration took office, the current account surplus of China increasingly became a focus of the political debate. While the trade dispute between the governments of the US and China naturally focusd on the trade balance between these two economies, our breakfast discussion examined the development of the current account balance between China, the Euro Area and the individual member states. The Euro Area deficit in trade with goods towards China reached its maximum in 2016 and has declined slightly since. Germany has even been recording a trade surplus since 2011. We discussed some potential drivers of the trade balance, such as the real effective exchange rates, the development of domestic demand or the fiscal stance with Members of the European Parliament. Finally, we asked whether excessive imbalances exist and, if government action is needed to tackle them.

Ageing populations in European countries are putting pressure on public finances through higher spending on old age benefits and lower tax revenues. Several European countries have conducted pension reforms in recent years aimed at enhancing fiscal sustainability. However, further policy challenges will arise due to the projected demographic changes ahead.

The second joint CEPS and EconPol lunchtime seminar discussed the issue of pension reform from different angles. In particular, it reflected on the experience with recent pension reforms in Europe, their public finance and labor market consequences and intergenerational fairness aspects. Another crucial question the seminar focused on is under which conditions pension reforms may find political support.

You can see the video of the debate here.

International migration is at the top of the European political agenda. European labor markets need immigrants. Population aging has already created labor shortages, but immigration also raises concerns about distributional conflicts.

These concerns, sometimes real and sometimes imagined, have played an important role in the rise of populist parties across Europe, and in the Brexit referendum. This lunchtime seminar, the first in a series, presented an overall assessment on the welfare effects of immigration when both the effects on labor market and public finances are accounted for.

It analyzed an often-overlooked aspect of international migration: emigration from European welfare states and how it can be expected to affect their fiscal and political sustainability.

The challenges facing the Eurozone are multifaceted, with Greece still having a long road to recovery and Italy facing a dangerous mix of a large government deficit and an already high debt level. This Lunch Debate was dedicated to discussing possible courses of action for the EU, if levels of sovereign debt become unsustainable. A special focus was placed on how an insolvency procedure for sovereigns may be designed as well as the risks and opportunities this presents.