Innovation, Digitization & Structural Change

There are three major challenges that today will force a rethinking of public goods: each of them may be thought of in terms of fundamental challenges to security, personal and national. One is the existential threat of climate change, and the bizarre geopolitical consequences of that change. The second is the impact of AI on labor market practices. AI is not only an obvious threat to employment, but also a security challenge. The third related challenge is the monetary revolution that is being produced by new technologies such as blockchain, and the consequent possibility of generating non-state moneys.

The Covid-19 pandemic triggered a huge, sudden uptake in work from home, as individuals and organizations responded to contagion fears and government restrictions on commercial and social activities. Over time, it has become evident that the big shift to work from home will endure after the pandemic ends. No other episode in modern history involves such a pronounced and widespread shift in working arrangements in such a compressed time frame.

Economic research has always emphasized the importance of a well-educated population for the level and dynamics of per capita income and other key economic variables. Foreseeable demographic changes – especially the stagnation or even decline of the active labor force – make investments in the quality of human capital particularly necessary.

In this issue of the EconPol Forum, our authors discuss how Europe can more effectively address all these challenges and solve the associated labor market problems caused by rapid structural change. The authors also provide helpful policy recommendations for national governments and EU companies.

This paper conceptualizes an appropriate path for fiscal policy starting from the early phase of the pandemic up to the final transition to a post-pandemic new normal. Using this yardstick, it assesses the initial fiscal response of Member States. It exploits fiscal projections and program data to analyze the adjustment to the economic recovery. For loan guarantee and short-time work schemes, it identifies program-specific parameters that improve target precision and identifies examples of more and less convincing program designs.