Geoeconomics

Geoeconomics

Under this moniker we have grouped the issues associated with the at times uneasy interplay between national economic interests and wider geopolitical considerations. The EU’s unhealthy dependence on Russian energy is a case in point, as well as the highly controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which took a war to get cancelled. By examining economic tools and resources, such as trade, investment, sanctions, and technological developments, Geoeconomics sheds light on how states leverage their economic strength to shape global dynamics and achieve geopolitical objectives—and how this can clash with the common EU interests.

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German Economic Model

The German Economic Model – Decline or Second Economic Miracle?

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Expert Opinion
What is the future of Germany’s economic model? The Russian attack on Ukraine has triggered a debate about the further development of prosperity in Germany. There are growing concerns about economic decline. Rising energy prices, the high costs of climate protection, an increase in geopolitical conflicts, and a shrinking workforce could put an end to the successes of the German economic model. Current decisions by energy-intensive companies to relocate investments to the United States and China seem to confirm this. Optimists counter that the growing global interest in clean technologies ought to benefit the capabilities of German companies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz even talks about Germany facing a period of high growth rates, similar to the years of the German economic miracle in the 1950s, because of investments in decarbonization.
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Banks Skyscrapers

The Current Banking Quake: Where Does It Come from and What Should Policy Makers Do?

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Expert Opinion
The crises at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse have shaken the world of finance. While policymakers and central banks are being placatory, the markets are not calming down. Banks that very recently seemed healthy are running into liquidity problems. Interest rate hikes by central banks are a major driver of the crisis. They cause the market value of bonds and other long-term assets such as real estate and stocks, previously inflated by expansionary monetary policy, to fall. At the same time, short-term interest rates are rising faster than long-term rates. As a result, banks must either grant account holders higher deposit rates or expect at least the more astute investors to withdraw their funds and invest them elsewhere on better terms.
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Cover of EconPol Forum 2/2023

How to Reconstruct Ukraine? Challenges, Plans and the Role of the EU

POLICY DEBATE OF THE HOUR

Anna Bjerde, Romina Bandura, Anders Åslund, Marek Dabrowski, Christopher A. Hartwell and Dmytro Boyarchuk, Barry Eichengreen, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel and Oleg Nivievskyi, Joop Adema, Yvonne Giesing, Tetyana Panchenko and Panu Poutvaara

The war in Ukraine is not over yet. Nevertheless, a possible roadmap and proposals for post-war reconstruction strategies are currently being discussed. They should be accompanied by economic and political reforms in the country. To finance this project, Ukraine will need to tap a variety of sources and institutions. This is because it will require investments in the hundreds of billions ‒ perhaps even trillions ‒ of US dollars. The EU, the US and other Western countries have signaled their willingness to provide further financial support for postwar reconstruction. Also potentially involved could be bilateral donors, multilateral banks, private investors, and the Russian state with reparations.

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Geoeconomic Strategy

Wanted: Geoeconomic Strategy for Trade Relations

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Expert Opinion
The planned investment by the Chinese state-owned group Cosco in HLLA, the operator of the Port of Hamburg, has triggered a fierce dispute. Critics of the investment argue that the Chinese government would gain unwanted control over the port facilities. Supporters, meanwhile, maintain that it is only a minority stake and that the German government is in a position to impose conditions on port operators, regardless of who the owner is.
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Cover of EconPol Policy Brief 45

Reactions to Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from German Firms

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Andreas Baur, Lisandra Flach, Beata Javorcik

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the configuration of international supply chains has received increased public attention. Pandemic-related disruptions in production and transportation have led to questions about the reliability of international production networks. Moreover, the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions against Russia have cast a new light on the geopolitical significance of economic interdependencies with autocratic regimes. How do firms react to these developments, and have they already adjusted their sourcing strategies? In this policy brief, we present the results from a representative survey of more than 4,000 firms in Germany, providing insights into how companies have responded to supply chain disruptions and which priorities they are setting for the future.

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