Geoeconomics

This EconPol Report sheds light on the global supply of semiconductors. The analysis of value-added data for the US underscores the importance of semiconductors for advanced economies. Using global trade data and an extensive list of semiconductor-related goods, the authors provide a detailed description of the global semiconductor economy. While final chip exports have been dominated by Taiwan, China, and Korea at an aggregate level since the early 2010s, export leadership varies substantially across chip types. Moreover, the authors identify nine core countries in North America, Europe, and Asia that dominate semiconductor-related trade including material inputs and equipment. The nine countries exhibit substantial mutual trade dependencies due to the fragmentation of semiconductor production

With the war now one of attrition, the Ukrainian economy needs to be strengthened. To this end, a package of measures is needed to incentivize the return of Ukrainian refugees and help businesses invest in Ukraine to create the jobs needed by returning refugees.

The European Union faces several simultaneous threats to its competitiveness: weakness in the industries of the future, insufficient innovation, expensive energy, the need to green its economy, and geopolitical and trade shifts, to name but a few. The EconPol Europe Annual Conference, on whose proceedings this policy brief is based, focused on three aspects that could make a substantial contribution to securing prosperity in the EU, but are in a lamentable state: they all currently fall far short of their potential. These are the power of the single market, the level of its innovation, and the capacity to defend itself. Both the high-level speakers at the conference as well as EconPol and ifo research make clear that some low-hanging fruit are there for the taking, if only the political will were there, a good dose of national chauvinism could be overcome, and an effective communication campaign were undertaken to explain to voters why some measures are not only necessary, but unavoidable. 

Defense spending above the NATO target of 2 percent of gross domestic product would be necessary for Europe to be able to defend itself without the protective umbrella of the United States. This is the conclusion of the new EconPol Policy Brief. European countries would have to significantly increase their efforts to catch up with an adequate defense capability, as defense budgets and military investments have been too low for years. Europe must compensate for higher real military costs than, for example, in Russia or China.

How do German firms view the upcoming US election and a possible second Donald Trump presidency? As part of the ifo Business Survey in September 2024, more than 2,000 German manufacturing firms were asked about the US election. 44 percent of German manufacturing firms anticipate negative impacts on their business situation if Donald Trump wins the election, compared to a potential Kamala Harris presidency.