EconPol Opinions

The decision of the UK to leave the EU imposes a key challenge for trade relations; regardless of the outcome of trade talks, trade costs are set to increase with the resulting shocks more severe for goods that are highly dependent on few suppliers. In the worst case scenario, say Lisandra Flach (EconPol Europe, LMU Munich and ifo Institute) and Feodora Teti (EconPol Europe, LMU Munich and ifo Institute), these shocks will cause significant supply chain disruptions that will have a much harsher impact on the UK than any EU member state.These product dependencies, they say, emphasize the need for a trade agreement that minimizes the costs of Brexit for both sides and reduces the uncertainty in international relations.

The confinement measures introduced in several countries to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have imposed a high toll on many economic activities. In this post, EconPol's Stefano Schiavo and co-authors exploit recent evidence on French firms recently published by the OFCE-SciencesPo to discuss the policy options facing European governments and the broader implications of firm exit for competitiveness. Using data on a large number of French firms, they simulate the impact of the lockdown on their balance sheets to estimate the share of companies facing liquidity or solvency issues. The main results from the simulation exercise show that the lockdown has profound effects on firms, with an estimated increase in insolvencies by almost 80%.

When SARS-CoV-2 spread across the world, national authorities implemented novel and drastic measures to curb transmission. Social distancing was introduced to preserve public health and slow down the spread of Covid-19, while in the workplace many economic activities were temporarility discontinued. Robotization appears to present a potential trade-off between safety and employment in the workplace, but observers are concerned that it could create incentives to replace labour. Mauro Caselli, Andrea Fracasso and Silvio Traverso (EconPol Europe, Università di Trento) examine the issues facing policy makers in their task of designing a pandemic-proof economy.

The road to recovery is long and winding, says Stefano Schiavo (EconPol Europe, Università di Trento) but it's one we have to take: exceptional measures are needed to exit the economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus, which will see national governments at the forefront of business support and demand stimulation plans.This will lead to a sharp increase in public debt of dimensions never seen in the post-war period, but it's crucial to direct public spending towards initiatives that generate growth and contribute to solving future problems.

Periods of crisis increase xenophobic outbursts and anti-immigrant sentiments, which can lead policy makers to target migrant workers in the hope of quickly restoring labor demand for natives - particularly when health crises are the root cause. But curbing the rise of unemployment by restricting access to the labor market and encouraging the departure of foreign workers is ineffective. In times of crisis, macroeconomic policies to stabilize economic activity and stimulate recovery are crucial to stop the rise in unemployment.