News Archive
What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia
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Policy Report
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This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic was 4.5%).
Planned Fiscal Consolidation and Under-Estimated Multipliers
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Policy Report
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The Great Financial Crisis caused a deep recession and led to very large public deficits. When financial market tensions erupted, many European countries were forced to reduce their deficits. This ‘austerity’ is often credited with the disappointingly slow recovery during the years after the financial crisis. One reason for such a slow recovery could have been that the impact of a reduction in the fiscal deficits is larger than anticipated during a recession, especially if it is accompanied by financial market tensions.
Effects of Policy Mix on European Regional Convergence
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Working Paper
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The new EconPol Working Paper analyses the impact of the fiscal-monetary policy mix on the convergence on per capita income of the least developed regions (Objective 1) of the European Union (EU 28) during the implementation of the three European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) programmes between 2000 and 2020. The Solow-Swan growth model with control variables allows us to assess the absorption capacity of regions in the different phases of the economic cycle. The empirical results show the effectiveness of EU Regional and Cohesion Policy.
A Model To Think About Crypto-Assets and Central Bank Digital Currency
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Policy Report
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The new EconPol Policy Report introduces digital assets, crypto assets in general, and Central Bank Digital Currency in particular, into an otherwise standard New-Keynesian closed economy model with Financial Frictions. This setting is used to study the impact of a change in preferences towards the use of digital assets and to address whether the emergence of this type of instruments affect the transmission of monetary policy shocks. In this context the paper analyzes the introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies.
Investment Screening Mechanisms: The Trend to Control Inward Foreign Investment
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Policy Report
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In an increasing number of sectors, concerns are rising that foreign firm participation may pose risks to public order. Many developed countries have adopted or extended their investment screening mechanisms to control inward foreign direct investment in strategically important sectors over the last years. This paper documents the development of investment screening in OECD and EU countries and provides the first discussion from an economic perspective. It reviews existing and propose new explanations for the adoption of investment screening.