German Industry Views a Trump Election Victory as Damaging

44 percent of manufacturing companies in Germany expect a negative impact on their business if Donald Trump is elected US President instead of Kamala Harris, as shown by an ifo Institute survey of 2,000 German manufacturing companies from September 2024. For around 51 percent, it makes no difference whether Trump or Harris wins the election. Only 5 percent expect positive effects from a Trump election.

“Companies with close economic ties to the US in particular expect negative consequences if Trump wins the election. At 48 percent, this share is above the average. However, many companies without direct export relations with the US also fear negative effects, as they could still be affected indirectly as suppliers, for example,” says ifo researcher Andreas Baur. If Trump wins the election, the overwhelming majority of 83 percent of German companies are not planning any adjustment measures. Only 4 percent of the companies surveyed are considering, for example, relocating production to the US, or adjusting supply chains if Trump moves into the White House. Around 13 percent state that they don’t know yet.

Most manufacturing companies currently expect a close election result. Around half of all the companies surveyed see better chances for Kamala Harris, tending to be more optimistic about Harris’s election chances if they fear negative consequences from a Trump election. Around a third see both candidates neck and neck. One in five companies sees Donald Trump in front. In particular, companies that are hoping for positive effects from a Trump election also tend to rate Trump’s election chances higher.

Questions can be directed to: Andreas Baur, 0049 / 89 / 9224 1280, Baur@ifo.de