US Presidential Election 2024: What’s Next for Global Politics and the World Economy?

On November 5 of this year, American voters will have a choice between former Republican President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, who was named the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for the presidency again. A record number of countries are holding elections this year, but this US presidential election is likely to be one of the most important due to the country’s influence on the global stage. Although the world is currently suffering from wars, rising tensions between major powers, and other geopolitical risks, most of these have not radically affected the outlook for economies and markets in the short term. However, many fear that this could change if the US returns to an aggressive “America First” stance. On the other hand, Harris is seen as the candidate of political continuity who will maintain many of Biden’s economic and foreign policy measures. 

Domestically, Mr. Biden has increased investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, clean energy, and expanding job opportunities as part of “Bidenomics,” which has led to strong growth during his presidency, but also to inflation and rising government debt. Mr. Trump, in turn, has blamed his successor’s huge government spending for inflation and promised a return to lower taxes and less regulation. Aside from such differences in the fiscal policy priorities of the two candidates, of which change could also have multiple cross-border spillover effects, the 2024 US elections are seen more than ever as a pivotal moment in global politics and have the great potential to reshape international trade, climate policy, and the geopolitical landscape.