Trump’s trade attack on China – who laughs last?

A modern general equilibrium trade model to simulate the effects of the Chinese-American trade dispute finds that both economies lose, but China loses absolutely and relatively much more. In our latest policy brief, the authors analyse the potential impacts of an escalating trade war and find that while the bilateral tade balance of the US with China improves, it deteriorates with the EU and forebodes further transatlantic conflict.

Gabriel Felbermayr and Marina Steininger: Trump’s trade attack on China – who laughs last?, EconPol Policy Brief 13, February 2019.

Press release: There are no winners in the US/China trade war but Trump may still hit his targets, say EconPol economists