Trade Policy Scenarios for Europe's Economy

Recent events and rising geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about the external dependence and vulnerability of Europe’s economy. A division of the global economy into geopolitical blocs would hit European pharmaceutical manufacturers, automotive manufacturers and suppliers, and manufacturers of machinery and equipment particularly hard. This is the finding of a new EconPol Policy Report. Based on a state-of-the-art trade model the study simulates the economic impact of several policy-driven de-globalization scenarios for Europe, for individual EU member states, different economic sectors, as well as for other economies around the world.