Geoeconomics

To improve defence capabilities, Europe has to increase defence spending immediately and also to create fiscal space for a permanent rise in defence spending. Many European countries have collected a considerable peace dividend since the end of the Cold War. In the same period, welfare states have expanded to a degree not backed by the general economic development. This Policy Report shows that if European NATO countries shifted around one percent of non-defence expenditure towards defence, this would be sufficient to meet the NATO 2%-target.

Rising geopolitical tensions, increasing supply chain disruptions, and falling public support for economic openness have given new impetus to economic nationalism. Governments around the world increasingly give precedence to domestic production and geopolitical considerations over gains from trade and economic efficiency. This policy trend has important implications for the EU, both as a global trading partner and as an important arena for economic policymaking. This policy report investigates possible repercussions of policy-driven de-globalization for the European Union.

Just over three decades ago, a new era appeared to have dawned in Europe: The Cold War had wound down, the Soviet Union’s empire had broken apart, and democratic capitalism stood poised to sweep aside ossified communist systems. This article uses geographic markers in the most recent wave of the Integrated Values Survey to show that, within Russia, the drop in a region’s electoral support for Boris Yeltsin between the presidential elections of 1991 and 1996 strongly predicts its degree of illiberalism in 2017. On balance, where faith in the politician who launched marketization and democratization declined most dramatically is where we continue to observe the greatest skepticism for his liberal project. The pattern laid down in the early 1990s persists.

Sub-Saharan Africa ranks as one of the world’s poorest regions. The causes of this are exceptionally complex, with political instability, lack of security, low levels of education, poor access to infrastructure and lack of integration into global trade networks as the leading explanations, among others. In recent decades, economists and agricultural development experts have been looking for ways to increase agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa through improved seeds, fertilisers and more modern farming technologies. This article looks at the measures in question, what has been done so far, and how scientists assess the effectiveness of these measures on agricultural productivity and poverty reduction. Finally, we present concrete recommendations.

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) promotes renewable energy and contributes to climate protection, but also offers generous tax credits and subsidies to incentivize production in the United States. While the planned generosity of the program has sparked an intense debate about potential negative spillover effects on the global economy, little is known about the quantity of potential adverse effects. In the new EconPol Policy Report the authors conduct a large-scale international survey among leading economic experts worldwide to quantify the effect of the US Inflation reduction act on the global economy. On a global scale, experts are little concerned about negative effects of the IRA on their domestic economy, estimating both the impact on national output and the risk of business outflows to be low. However, we uncover large heterogeneity in the potential impact of the IRA across countries and regions. In Europe, particularly in France and Germany, economic experts are highly concerned about the IRA and expect a significant effect of the IRA on the domestic economy. In terms of economic policy reactions, roughly 41% of the respondents support economic countermeasures.