Welcome to the latest issue of our EconPol newsletter. This edition offers fresh insights on timely economic topics, along with a preview of our upcoming EconPol Annual Conference. 

Balancing Acts: Navigating US Trade Disruptions and the Challenge of Climate Adaptation    

 EVENTS                        
  • Registration Now Open – EconPol Annual Conference 2025: Adaptation to Climate Change 
 POLICY BRIEFS            
  • US “Reciprocal” Tariffs and the Erosion of Global Trade Rules: Implications for Germany 

  • The Effect of Trump Tariffs on Mexico and Canada 

 ECONPOL FORUM        
  • New Publication Schedule 

 EVENTS                          

Registration Now Open – EconPol Annual Conference 2025: Adaptation to Climate Change

19 May 2025 | Representation of the Free State of Bavaria to the EU | Brussels

Climate policy debates tend to focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the main driver of climate change. However, even under the most optimistic scenarios, climate change is expected to persist. This does not only cause substantial physical and economic damage, but it also threatens the livelihoods of communities worldwide

At this year’s EconPol Annual Conference, we will explore effective adaptation strategies in response to climate change. In our high-level panel discussions, we will take an in-depth look at policy responses and innovative approaches across the EU and the Global South, while also addressing the role of migration as a potential adaptation strategy

The keynote address will be delivered by Kurth Vandenberghe, Director-General for Climate Action at the European Commission. Panel speakers include Ibrahima Amadou Dia, Blaz Kurnik, Andrei Marcu, Johan Swinnen, and Frederick van der Ploeg.  

The conference will take place on May 19, 2025, in Brussels at the Representation of the Free State of Bavaria to the EU in Brussels.  

To register, please visit our conference website.

 POLICY BRIEFS             

US “Reciprocal” Tariffs and the Erosion of Global Trade Rules: Implications for Germany

Trade policy has become a rollercoaster ride.  In this Policy Brief we examined the potential impact of various tariff scenarios on the German economy. One of those were “reciprocal” tariffs, as announced by the US government. It found that symmetric tariffs - where the US would increase tariffs on products by the amount levied by its trading partners - would reduce German exports to the US by only 2.4%, compared to a 15% decline under a blanket 20% tariff increase on EU goods. This relatively mild effect of symmetric tariffs stems from the narrow average tariff gap of just 0.5 percentage points on average between the US and the EU. However, since these results came out, US trade policy took at least two further twists. More research is to follow. 

The Effect of Trump Tariffs on Mexico and Canada

This Policy Brief examined the impact of the 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, first announced by President Trump following his re-election in November 2024. Assuming that both countries respond with symmetric retaliatory tariffs, the study projected a sharp drop in exports across all three economies: 28% in Canadian exports, 35% in Mexican and 22% in US exports. In this scenario, Mexico’s and Canada’s manufacturing sectors would be most affected, with value-added losses of 13% and 14%, respectively, while in the US, the agricultural sector would take the biggest hit, with a 2.4% drop in value added.  As it turned out, Canada and Mexico did respond with mirror tariffs: Canada imposed a 25% tariff on US goods worth approximately CAD 155 billion, while Mexico similarly introduced a 25% tariff on key US exports, including pork, dairy and various manufactured products.  
 ECONPOL FORUM        

New Publication Schedule

We would like to inform you that, as of early 2025, we have shifted our EconPol Forum from a bi-monthly to a quarterly publication schedule. This allows us to deliver timely content to our readers with greater flexibility, without being as tightly bound to fixed publication dates. We appreciate your continued readership and look forward to sharing our next EconPol Forum with you. If you wish to subscribe to our EconPol Forum Email Alert, please click here.

We hope you enjoyed reading this latest edition of our EconPol newsletter. We’ll be back in June with our next issue.
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EconPol Europe is CESifo’s economic policy platform. With key support from the ifo Institute, it seeks to leverage CESifo’s globe-spanning network of more than 2 000 high-ranked economists – at least a dozen of whom have won the Nobel Prize – and ifo’s decades-deep research expertise to provide well-founded advice to European policymakers and to facilitate informed decisions. Drawing on the wide range of specializations of its members, EconPol’s mission is to contribute to the crafting of evidence-based, effective economic policy in the face of the rapidly evolving challenges faced by the European economies and their global partners.
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Email: newsletter@econpol.eu
Editor: Susanne Richter
Coordination EconPol: Dr. Cornelia Geißler

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